U.S. Rep. John Katko, center, and state Assemblyman Gary Finch, right, greet employees during shift change Oct. 26, 2018, at Auburn Correctional Facility.
National Democrats believe there's a high likelihood a few New York Republicans, including U.S. Rep. John Katko, could opt not to seek re-election in 2020.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee released its retirement watch list Tuesday. Katko, R-Camillus, landed on the list alongside fellow New York Reps. Chris Collins and Peter King.
The list's release comes with the launch of a Twitter ad campaign targeting voters in the 24th Congressional District, which Katko represents.
The DCCC's retirement list has 19 GOP members listed, including one — U.S. Rep. Rob Woodall — who has already announced their retirement.
"It's tough to be a Republican in Washington right now, and frankly, we wouldn't be at all surprised if Congressman Katko decides he's had enough," said Mike Gwin, a DCCC spokesman.
The DCCC will be running this ad on Twitter targeting voters in the 24th Congressional District. The organization added U.S. Rep. John Katko to its retirement watch list.
Michael McAdams, a spokesman for the National Republican Congress Committee, dismissed the Democrats' list.
"Democrats adding John Katko to a retirement list is almost as laughable as their Green New Deal," McAdams said. "Before Democrats try abolishing airplanes and individual freedoms, they should abolish this asinine list."
Katko is in his third term representing the 24th district, which covers all of Cayuga, Onondaga and Wayne counties, plus a portion of Oswego County. He was first elected to Congress in 2014.
His 2018 re-election bid was his toughest election yet. Democratic challenger Dana Balter out-raised him in the final weeks of the race and narrowed what was a double-digit gap in the polls.
Balter's effort came up short. Katko won re-election by five percentage points in a difficult year for GOP candidates. Nationwide, several GOP incumbents lost their races as Democrats won control of the House for the first time since 2010.
Democrats are optimistic about adding to their majority in 2020. Katko is one of 33 GOP-held seats the DCCC will target next year.
Katko, though, is an early favorite to win re-election. While it's only two months into the 2020 election cycle, he doesn't have an announced opponent. Balter hasn't decided whether she will run again and no other Democrats have publicly expressed interest in the race.
A source close to Katko said he intends to seek re-election in 2020. Political forecasters rate the race "likely Republican" mainly due to his past election performance in the lean Democratic district.
In 2014 and 2016, Katko won by at least 20 points against his Democratic opponents. Last year, despite a national "blue wave" that helped Democrats flip several GOP-held seats, Katko fended off a stiff challenge.
While Katko is now in the minority for the first time in three terms, he has embraced the role. He has formed a working relationship with U.S. Rep. Anthony Brindisi, one of those Democrats who defeated Republicans in the 2018 midterm elections.
Brindisi, D-Utica, beat GOP Rep. Claudia Tenney in the neighboring 22nd Congressional District.
Katko holds key congressional and political leadership posts in his third term. In the House, he's now the ranking member of the Subcommittee on Cybersecurity, Infrastructure Protection and Innovation. And last month, it was announced he would serve as vice chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee's Patriot Program.
The NRCC's Patriot Program aids House GOP incumbents like Katko.
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