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NFL Week 3 picks and predictions

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Chargers Chiefs Football

Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are one of nine road teams that are favored Sunday in Week 3.

A matchup of future, first-ballot Hall of Fame quarterbacks highlights the Week 3 slate as Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers travel to face Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday.

Sometimes you've got to go against the grain. Especially when you're in a slump.

Week 3 in the NFL is that time for me.

I know, I know, it's too early to panic (cue the cliches!), there's a lot of football to be played. But there's also no time like the present to get back in the game.

And it starts now.

There are nine games this week where the home team is the underdog. But so far this season, that's not been a bad thing.

Last week, home team underdogs went 4-1-1 against the spread, while underdogs in general went 10-5-1, according to CBSSportsHQ. For the season, underdogs have won 58% of their games ATS through two weeks, going 18-13-1, while home underdogs are winning 64% of the time ATS (9-5-1).

So we should go with the home dogs this week, right? Not so fast.

Again, we're looking to turn the tide. So (and hear me out) ... out of 14 games this Sunday, where nine of the home teams are underdogs, I've got 12 road teams winning straight up and eight of them covering.

There a method to the madness, aside from sheer desperation: First we know that the opening two weeks of the NFL season have been crazy -- historically crazy. And crazy can't last 17 weeks. Can it?

The trends will level out.

Last year, according to records on teamrankings.com, home underdogs finished the season 36% (38-68) ATS. And over the last five years as home underdogs, the eight teams I picked against are 55-95 (37%) ATS, while the eight road favorites in that same time frame are 117-45 (72%) ATS.

Something's got to give, right? 

Also, just look at the matchups. It's a road warrior weekend.

Now, on to the picks!

(All odds courtesy of DraftKings and are subject to change)

Sunday, Sept. 25

Houston Texans vs. Chicago Bears

  • When: 1 p.m., CBS
  • Spread: Bears -3 (-110); Texans +3 (-110)
  • Money line: Bears -150; Texans +130
  • Over/Under: 40 (-110)
  • The pick: Houston, 20-18

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Tennessee Titans

  • When: 1 p.m., FOX
  • Spread: Raiders -1.5 (110); Titans +1.5 (110)
  • Money line: Raiders -125; Titans +105
  • Over/Under: 45.5 (-110)
  • The pick: Raiders, 27-21

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Indianapolis Colts

  • When: 1 p.m., CBS
  • Spread: Chiefs -5.5 (-110); Colts +5.5 (-110)
  • Money line: Chiefs -250; Colts +210
  • Over/Under: 50.5 (-110)
  • The pick: Chiefs, 30-17

Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins

  • When: 1 p.m., CBS
  • Spread: Bills -6 (-110); Dolphins +6 (-110)
  • Money line: Bills -240; Dolphins +200
  • Over/Under: 52.5 (-110)
  • The pick: Bills, 35-10

Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings

  • When: 1 p.m., FOX
  • Spread: Vikings -6 (-110); Lions +6 (-110)
  • Money line: Vikings -255; Lions +215
  • Over/Under: 53 (-110)
  • The pick: Vikings, 32-30

Baltimore Ravens vs. New England Patriots

  • When: 1 p.m., FOX
  • Spread: Ravens -2.5 (-110); Patriots +2.5 (-110)
  • Money line: Ravens -145; Patriots +125
  • Over/Under: 43.5 (-110)
  • The pick: Ravens, 20-14

In this week's FPBcast, Gerry Ahern and Mike Szvetitz take a look at their top games and top bets.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. New York Jets

  • When: 1 p.m., CBS
  • Spread: Bengals -5.5 (-110); Jets +5.5 (-110)
  • Money line: Bengals -245; Jets +205
  • Over/Under: 45 (-110)
  • The pick: Bengals, 30-12

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Commanders

  • When: 1 p.m., FOX
  • Spread: Eagles -6.5 (-110); Commanders +6.5 (-110)
  • Money line: Eagles -280; Commanders +235
  • Over/Under: 47 (-110)
  • The pick: Eagles, 35-30

New Orleans Saints vs. Charlotte Panthers

  • When: 1 p.m., FOX
  • Spread: Saints -2.5 (-110); Panthers +2.5 (-110)
  • Money line: Saints -150; Panthers +130
  • Over/Under: 41 (-110)
  • The pick: Saints, 24-21

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Los Angeles Chargers

  • When: 4:05 p.m., CBS
  • Spread: Chargers -7 (-110); Jaguars +7 (-110)
  • Money line: Chargers -305; Jaguars +255
  • Over/Under: 47 (-110)
  • The pick: Chargers, 28-20

Los Angeles Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals

  • When: 4:25 p.m., FOX
  • Spread: Rams -3.5 (-110); Cardinals +3.5 (-110)
  • Money line: Rams -175; Cardinals +150
  • Over/Under: 48.5 (-110)
  • The pick: Rams, 32-27

Atlanta Falcons vs. Seattle Seahawks

  • When: 4:25 p.m., FOX
  • Spread: Seahawks -1 (-110); Falcons +1 (-110)
  • Money line: Seahawks -110; Falcons -110
  • Over/Under: 42 (-110)
  • The pick: Falcons, 22-20

Green Bay Packers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • When: 4:25 p.m., FOX
  • Spread: Buccaneers -1 (-110); Packers +1 (-110)
  • Money line: Buccaneers -120; Packers +100
  • Over/Under: 41.5 (-110)
  • The pick: Packers, 29-27

San Francisco 49ers vs. Denver Broncos

  • When: 8:25 p.m., NBC
  • Spread: 49ers -1.5 (-110); Broncos +1.5 (-110)
  • Money line: 49ers -120; Broncos +100
  • Over/Under: 45 (-110)
  • The pick: 49ers, 22-18

Monday, Sept. 26

Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants

  • When: 8:15 p.m., ABC
  • Spread: Giants -1 (-110); Cowboys +1 (-110)
  • Money line: Giants -115; Cowboys -105
  • Over/Under: 39 (-110)
  • The pick: Giants, 17-15

Szvetitz season record: 16-16 SU; 14-18 ATS


Gambling problem? There is help. Call 1-800-522-4700 or visit the National Council on Problem Gambling for help.

Mike Szvetitz is the General Manager and Content Director for FrontPageBets.com. Szvetitz is a 22-year veteran reporter and editor, including serving 17 years as a sports editor in Florida, Alabama and Virginia, covering everything from preps to pros. His "View From The Lazy Boy" column won multiple state and national awards. He can be reached at mszvetitz@timesdispatch.com.

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